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Mathematics

Chance, and How It Fools You

Base rates, the coin with no memory, and the average that answers nothing

Bayes · Galton · Bernoulli · 3 chapters · 11 min read

Base rates, the coin with no memory, and why the average is the wrong question.

Free to read: every chapter below is open

Probability

  1. 01The Test Is 99% AccurateOn a test that is right 99% of the time and a result that means almost nothing.
  2. 02The Coin Has No MemoryOn what actually converges, and the correction that never comes.
  3. 03The Average Is the Wrong QuestionOn averages, ruin, and why insurance is a bad bet worth taking.