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Prediction and Its Limits

Three decimal places, the two-week wall, and twenty years of keeping score

Lorenz · Box · Tetlock · 3 chapters · 11 min read

Three decimal places, the two-week wall, and twenty years of keeping score.

Free to read: every chapter below is open

Forecasting

  1. 01Three Decimal PlacesOn three decimal places, and the two-week wall.
  2. 02All Models Are WrongOn all models being wrong, and what follows from taking that seriously.
  3. 03Twenty Years of Keeping ScoreOn twenty years of checking whether anybody knows what happens next.